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Egg Price Forecasting Using Neural Networks

107 Food Animal Production Center, Tuskegee University, Tuskegee, AL 36088; Phone: (334) 724-4276; Fax: (334) 724-4277

Correspondence: G. V. Dozier, E-mail:ahmad_anwar{at}hotmail.com

Various models, including linear regression employing different variables of interest, have been used in the past to predict the future market price of shelled eggs. These models, however, could not account for most of the variations in market egg price, notwithstanding timely and expensive data collection. A new approach using neural networks, a branch of artificial intelligence, has been used in this project to forecast egg price. The results indicated better-fit lines and higher R². A general regression neural network proved more accurate than a back propagation neural network. Neural networks can offer a more efficient alternative to traditional forecasting and prediction techniques. However, reliable data collection and proper manipulation of such data remains the under girding of any successful neural network model.

Key Words: Egg price • forecasting • neural networks