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Use of Statistical Modeling to Assess Risk for Early Poult Mortality in Commercial Turkey Flocks

Poultry Science Department, North Carolina State University, Box 7608, Raleigh, NC 27695; Phone: (919) 515-5526; FAX: (919) 515-7070

John Fetrow

Department of Clinical and Population Science, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108

Tom Gerig

Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695

Maria T. Correa

Department of Microbiology Pathology and Parasitology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27607

Kenneth K. Krueger

Diamond K. Research, Inc., Marshville, NC 28103

H. John Barnes

Department of Food Animal and Equine Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27607

Correspondence: Donna K. Carver, E-mail:donna_carver{at}ncsu.edu

Statistical models were used to identify and quantify risk factors associated with early poult mortality. Mortality patterns were not different for hen and tom flocks, although toms experienced greater mortality. Season of placement, breeder flock age, strain, hatchery, and company had significant effects on risk of poult mortality in the first 14 days after placement. Hen flocks hatched in Virginia or placed in summer had higher risks of mortality. Tom flocks from young breeder hens, hatched in Virginia, or placed in winter had higher risks of mortality. There were strain effects on risk for poult mortality, and effect of breeder flock age on poult mortality was strain specific for hen poults. Median mortality differences among companies ranged from 0.98 to 2.11% at Day 14 for hens, and from 1.27 to 5.76% at Day 14 for toms. There were wide-ranging company effects on risks of mortality.

Key Words: Mortality • poult • risk